TidBITS#612/14-Jan-02
=====================

  The new iMac and iPhoto dominated last week's Macworld Expo, but
  those weren't the only interesting things at the show. In this
  issue we offer an overview of the show, plus our superlatives for
  products and companies that caught our attention. Also, Adam peers
  into his crystal ball (well, actually, the liquid crystal display
  of his iBook) to prognosticate on what 2002 will likely bring.
  Finally, Judge Motz rejects the proposed Microsoft civil
  settlement.

Topics:
    MailBITS/14-Jan-02
    Macworld Expo SF 2002 Overview
    Macworld Expo San Francisco 2002 Superlatives
    Peering Into 2002's Tea Leaves

<http://www.tidbits.com/tb-issues/TidBITS-612.html>
<ftp://ftp.tidbits.com/issues/2001/TidBITS#612_14-Jan-02.etx>

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MailBITS/14-Jan-02
------------------

**iMac, iPhoto Corrections** -- Last week's issue was a bit
  unusual for us, which led to a couple of errors in our Macworld
  Expo coverage. Although I was able to attend the rescheduled
  keynote address, Adam didn't arrive from Ithaca until the
  afternoon. So, the two of us ended up writing the issue over a
  five-hour period in a Starbucks near Moscone with flaky wireless
  Internet access (by the time we finished, Adam had been awake for
  21 hours and was decidedly wobbly). As such, we didn't discover
  until the next day that the new iMac does in fact contain a fan,
  rather than relying on convection cooling as we reported. However,
  we were pleased to learn that it isn't an ordinary fan. It's
  temperature-activated, like a PowerBook G4's fan, and works at
  variable speeds depending on the iMac's temperature (so it's
  likely to turn off shortly after an iMac goes to sleep). What's
  more impressive is that it was specifically designed to minimize
  noise, so that the fan is quieter than the hard disk, producing a
  maximum of 25 decibels. (By comparison, a whisper is usually 20 to
  30 decibels at a distance between 3 and 15 feet, and the typical
  background noise in even a quiet room will be louder than the
  iMac's fan.) Also, another difference between the iMac and the
  Power Mac G4 is the Power Mac's L3 cache, which will improve
  performance over iMacs with similar clock speeds.

<http://db.tidbits.com/getbits.acgi?tbart=06682>
<http://www.apple.com/imac/>

  We also erroneously reported that iPhoto wasn't capable of
  printing books on your own printer. In fact, when you're in the
  Book view, you can simply select Print from the File menu; we were
  looking for the option in the Share and Book toolbars. [JLC]

<http://db.tidbits.com/getbits.acgi?tbart=06683>
<http://www.apple.com/iphoto/>


**Proposed Microsoft Settlement Rejected** -- U.S. District Judge
  J. Frederick Motz agreed with critics that the proposed $1 billion
  settlement of the combined private class-action suits against
  Microsoft appeared to "provide a means for flooding a part of the
  kindergarten through high school market, in which Microsoft has
  not traditionally been the strongest player (particularly in
  relation to Apple), with Microsoft software and refurbished
  hardware." (See "Into the Briar Patch: Microsoft's Self-Serving
  Settlement" in TidBITS-607_.) In rejecting the settlement, Judge
  Motz also commented that the proposal for Microsoft to give away
  software "could be viewed as constituting 'court approved
  predatory pricing.'" Despite these harsh words, Judge Motz was not
  unsympathetic the basic idea behind the settlement, but he
  suggested that Microsoft should pay the settlement amount in cash
  into a special fund, from which schools could purchase whatever
  hardware and software they chose. Lawyers for both sides said they
  would continue to work on a revised settlement, and failing that,
  go to trial. [ACE]

<http://db.tidbits.com/getbits.acgi?tbart=06645>
<http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/Press/2002/Jan02/
01-11ClassActionDecisionPR.asp>


Macworld Expo SF 2002 Overview
------------------------------
  by Adam C. Engst <ace@tidbits.com>

  I've been analyzing Macworld Expos for a long time now, and never
  have I been quite so at a loss for what to say. It wasn't that
  this year's Macworld Expo in San Francisco was a bad show, because
  it wasn't. But it wasn't a stunning show either, and more to the
  point, there simply wasn't a lot about it that stood out one way
  or another after the great new iMac and iPhoto.

  The number of exhibitors was down quite a bit from last year, with
  notable absences such as Macromedia, Palm, and Handspring, and
  even those that were present occupied less space than before.
  There were bright spots - MacTech Central, which hosts interesting
  small developers, represented about 10 percent of the companies at
  the show and was larger than any of the other special interest
  pavilions, a nice achievement to mark MacTech Magazine's 200th
  issue and Neil Ticktin's 10th anniversary as publisher of the
  magazine. Plus, attendance estimates put it at least comparable to
  last year's figures, which is downright amazing in this weak
  economic climate. Other information technology shows have suffered
  significant attendance drops, and while I'm sure IDG World Expo
  worked hard to get attendees in the door, I see no reason to
  assume that other show organizers wouldn't be doing the same.

  Most interestingly, just like the previous Macworld Expo in New
  York, both attendees and exhibitors were upbeat. MacAcademy
  reportedly sold a lot more of their training products this year
  than last, and Peachpit Press was doing banner business selling
  books. Other booths, like the CoolMacStuff.com booth and the folks
  selling old software at cut-rate prices, were constantly mobbed.
  Retailers weren't the only ones were happy - Jim Rea of ProVUE
  Development (the Panorama folks) said it was a great show for
  them, and others echoed the sentiment.

<http://www.macacademy.com/>
<http://www.peachpit.com/>
<http://www.coolmacstuff.com/>
<http://www.provue.com/>

  Although there were numerous exhibitors showing Mac OS X-native
  applications, most of those were ports of previous versions and
  didn't add much in the way of new functionality or showcase Mac OS
  X's capabilities. In fact, a number of them suffered from
  performance problems under Mac OS X because an application doesn't
  seem to be able to take over nearly 100 percent of the Mac's CPU
  power under Mac OS X, as is possible in Mac OS 9, making it
  difficult to provide peak performance on the same hardware. As a
  friend put it, when a company proudly told you they'd ported their
  program to Mac OS X, you felt like patting them on the head and
  saying, "Here's a cookie."

  Don't take this as criticism of the developers - just getting
  programs ported to Mac OS X has been a Herculean task for many.
  Despite what Apple claimed when Mac OS X was first announced, the
  process of carbonizing an application isn't trivial, and a number
  of developers were griping about having to pay their programmers
  to debug Apple's code. Especially notable was the lack of a Carbon
  version of Adobe Photoshop, partially because it's such a
  necessity for the graphic design market and partially because
  Apple had trotted Adobe out at the WWDC announcement of Mac OS X
  nearly three years back to show how they'd ported much of
  Photoshop in a week. Ouch.

<http://db.tidbits.com/getbits.acgi?tbart=04881>

  It also shouldn't be taken as more than constructive criticism
  of Apple. Apple doesn't want to make things difficult for
  developers - that's a losing strategy if ever there was one -
  but merging NeXTstep and the Mac OS and moving it forward in new
  ways has simply proved more difficult than Apple imagined. There
  have certainly been stupid decisions and ill-advised bits of
  inattention to important areas, but that's often just the cost of
  doing business in a project as large as Mac OS X. One ray of hope
  is the return of Bud Tribble as a vice president of Software
  Technology, reporting to Avie Tevanian. Bud Tribble is well known
  as the manager of the original Macintosh Software team, after
  which he helped found NeXT Computer, worked as chief technology
  officer for the Sun-Netscape Alliance, and was most recently vice
  president of Engineering for Eazel, Andy Hertzfeld's attempt to
  create an open source graphical interface for Linux.

<http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2002/jan/09tribble.html>

  In fact, all this is in large part why iPhoto is so important.
  It's not just a Mac-only application, it's a full-fledged Cocoa
  application that runs only under Mac OS X. In essence, you have
  Apple saying, "Well, if no one else is going to show off just how
  easy it is to write a Cocoa application that does new stuff, we'll
  just have to do it ourselves." iPhoto isn't just a decent little
  application with a few neat tricks, it's a good-enough-to-ship
  proof of concept, where the concept is that Mac developers will
  bring new functionality to the platform thanks to the wonders of
  Mac OS X. That's what I'm looking forward to for Macworld Expo New
  York next July.

  Perhaps what I'm trying to tease out is the level to which
  Macworld Expo has become a networking event as much as a showcase
  of the latest technology. Numerous private parties supplanted the
  costly corporate events, resulting in smaller gatherings held in
  venues where conversation didn't require screaming to be heard
  over the band. Although we all go to Macworld Expo to see the
  latest new thing, this year's show gave us - and hopefully many
  others - the opportunity to look beyond the obvious and see where
  the full range of Mac companies is headed.


Macworld Expo San Francisco 2002 Superlatives
---------------------------------------------
  by TidBITS Staff <editors@tidbits.com>

  Although the pre-show hype always centers on Steve Jobs's keynote
  and Apple's announcements, Macworld Expo offers much more. We
  spend the rest of the week walking the show floor, talking to
  vendors and attendees, and generally keeping an eye out for what's
  exciting in the Mac world. Here's what we found  this year.


**Knob and a Button, Two Bits** -- Everyone at Macworld Expo goes
  around asking others what they think is cool, and the award for
  the coolest product of the show has to go to the PowerMate, from
  Griffin Technologies. Also known as "that shiny knob," the $45
  PowerMate is a round brushed aluminum USB device that you can turn
  (the knob part) and also press down (the button bit, just like a
  mouse button). What might you do with such a device? Just about
  anything you can imagine doing with a knob and a button, since you
  can configure them independently for different applications. In
  iTunes, for instance, you might turn the knob to adjust the volume
  and click the button to mute the sound when the phone rings. In
  iMovie, you could have the knob scrub the playhead left and right
  and have the button act like a normal mouse click. The PowerMate
  is just cool, and the coolness factor is enhanced by LEDs that
  make the base of the PowerMate glow blue. The software even has a
  checkbox to pulse the LEDs; when someone asked Griffin's Jason
  Litchford why it did that, he just grinned and said, "Because we
  could." (Also falling into the "Because we could" category was
  Griffin's bit of hacked hardware that plugged into an iPod's
  headphone jack and turned the iPod into an infrared remote
  control.) [ACE]

<http://www.griffintechnology.com/audio/pwrmate.html>


**Got Any Spare Charge?** A constant undercurrent of every
  Macworld is power: who has it, who needs it, and where you can get
  it. I'm not talking about Steve Jobs's here, but the battery life
  of portable electronics. With the Palm charger forgotten at home
  and the phone's bulky brick back in my hotel room, I ended up
  purchasing a $25 combination from ND Dimension, Inc. that included
  a USB charging cable and interchangeable adapters to feed power to
  my two devices from my PowerBook's battery. In addition to being a
  handy thing to carry around, a USB charging cable dramatically
  cuts down on the bulk of transporting power bricks. [JLC]

<http://www.nd-dimension.com/>


**AirPorts Without Security** -- Kudos to the Macworld Expo
  conference organizers for making it easy to open an iBook or
  PowerBook in numerous locations and hop on a public wireless
  network with high speed Internet access. AirPort Base Stations
  have been present at Macworld Expos before, but never with the
  near ubiquity of this year. And with the light weight of Apple's
  current portables, carrying a laptop all day at the show isn't the
  shoulder-breaking task it once was. None of the wireless networks
  Jeff and I found from the hotel room allowed access (though one
  network was gleefully named "Bring beer to room 1162 for
  password"). Instead, being able to connect to Jeff's MobileStar
  account using the wireless Internet access at a nearby Starbucks
  came close to making up for the loss of Metricom's wireless
  Ricochet network, which we've used at previous shows but which
  hasn't yet been restarted by Aerie Networks. [ACE]

<http://www.mobilestar.com/>
<http://db.tidbits.com/getbits.acgi?tbart=06510>
<http://www.ricochet.net/>


**No Need for a Peeler** -- Perhaps you really liked Apple's
  bright splashes of color from a few years back and bemoan the
  current graphite, snow, and silver cases. Well, if you're a Power
  Mac G3 (Blue & White) or G4 owner, you don't have to look any
  further than AppleSkinz, which are airbrushed (for now, silk
  screening coming in the future) plastic panels that fit over the
  sides of your Power Mac to give it back some color (there's also a
  clear skin you can paint yourself). Numerous designs are available
  for $50 until the end of January; $70 after that (prices also vary
  based on design). The AppleSkinz require no modification of your
  Power Mac or tape that will mark the original sides. The latch is
  covered, but it's easy to pull the AppleSkinz cover off to access
  it when necessary. [ACE]

<http://www.appleskinz.com/>


**It's Backup Time!** This award goes jointly to Apple Computer
  and Dantz Development for finally making it possible to back up
  and restore a Mac running Mac OS X. Until Mac OS X 10.1.2 came
  out, a variety of bugs and limitations in Mac OS X prevented Dantz
  from releasing a version of Retrospect that could completely
  restore a Mac OS X-based Mac to a bootable state (the same was
  reportedly true of the other Mac OS X backup programs, but 10.1.2
  made it possible for them to restore completely as well).
  Retrospect 5.0 Preview is required - previous versions of
  Retrospect will never work properly with Mac OS X - but you can
  download it for free (the final version will be a paid upgrade due
  by March). Although the Retrospect 5.0 Preview runs only on Mac OS
  X 10.1.2, the final version will also run under Mac OS 9, so you
  won't have to upgrade backup servers to Mac OS X. [ACE]

<http://www.dantz.com/index.php3?SCREEN=osx>


**Quick, Easy Backup** -- The main backup news of the show may
  have been Dantz's Retrospect 5.0 Preview, but the backup product
  that demoed best was the Automatic Backup System (ABS) from CMS
  Peripherals. ABS is a small piece of software that watches your
  Mac's FireWire bus for the connection of the ABS hardware -
  essentially a standard 3.5-inch FireWire hard disk. Once the drive
  is connected, the ABS software kicks in and copies files from the
  internal hard disk to the ABS drive. You specify which files
  should be copied, and ABS is smart about copying only changed
  files, so it runs quickly. Restoration (which is the point of
  backup, remember) must be done manually in the Finder, although if
  you're backing up from Mac OS 9, you can also boot from the ABS
  drive. Restoration in Mac OS X is trickier - user-created files
  restore fine, but you can't restore an entire Mac OS X hard disk
  to a bootable state. Our take is that the ABS (and the ABSplus,
  which uses a 2.5-inch laptop hard disk and thus doesn't need
  external power) would be great for making quick copies of
  important files on a number of Macs, but they're not really
  suitable for a complete backup strategy. Prices vary depending on
  the size of the hard disk you buy, and unfortunately, you can't
  use the ABS software separately from the ABS drive even though
  there's no technical reason such a requirement should exist. [ACE]

<http://www.cmsproducts.com/products/abs.htm>
<http://www.cmsproducts.com/products/usb_abs_notebook.htm>


**Biggest Threat to Excel** -- Mesa, from P & L Systems, is a $50
  spreadsheet for Mac OS X, written in Cocoa. It's not a feature-
  complete clone of Excel, but it does imitate a good-sized chunk of
  Excel's core, and can import and export Excel documents; it even
  adds some formula functions that improve upon Excel. Now that
  Cocoa lets anyone write an application, perhaps we'll see a bit
  more competition for the ensconced industry behemoths. [MAN]

<http://www.plsys.com/products/mesa/>


**Is That a Mouse in Your Pocket?** Although the trackpad on an
  iBook or PowerBook is perfectly adequate for manipulating your
  Mac, sometimes it's easier to use a mouse when you're on the go.
  For a while I toted Apple's thankfully banished puck-style mouse
  because it didn't take up much space in my bag. Now, however, I'm
  looking forward to carrying Kensington's Pocket Mouse Pro. It not
  only boasts a smaller overall size than most mice, it has two
  buttons, a scroll wheel, and optical tracking. I'd be happy with
  that combination, but a retractable USB cable (which fits inside
  the mouse body for storage) makes the Pocket Mouse Pro an
  essential addition to my PowerBook's carrying bag. [JLC]

<http://www.kensington.com/products/pro_mic_d1453.html>


**Best New Utility** -- WorkStrip, from Softchaos, is a $40
  Control Strip replacement. It's a hierarchical menu that lets you
  navigate your hard drive, and a launcher which, for any
  application, lets you access recently opened documents. You can
  also construct "workspaces," sets of applications and documents to
  be launched together. WorkStrip is reminiscent of Now Menus and
  Action Menus, and there's not much here that couldn't be done with
  OneClick, but WorkStrip will soon do something none of those can
  do - run on Mac OS X (a preview release is already available). I
  can't wait. [MAN]

<http://www.softchaos.com/>


**iPods Galore** -- When Apple first introduced the iPod, we
  wondered whether the $400 price tag would keep people away from
  the extremely cool MP3 player (see "iPod Makes Music More
  Attractive" in TidBITS-603_). Apparently not. In addition to the
  company's announcement of 125,000 units sold in its first 60 days,
  iPods were in generous supply among attendees at the show. The
  identifiable white earbuds seemed to be everywhere, much the way
  PalmPilots seemed to appear all at once several years ago. Vendors
  were conscious of this fact too. XtremeMac, MCE, and Other World
  Computing all offered a variety of iPod cases and adapters. iPods
  were also being sold at the show, if you could find them. When I
  inquired at one of the few retail companies in attendance, Unitek,
  I was told that a shipment of 72 iPods was due any minute via
  FedEx - which apparently sold out within an hour or so. Perhaps
  creating the best device in its class really does make a
  difference. [JLC]

<http://db.tidbits.com/getbits.acgi?tbart=06608>
<http://www.xtrememac.com/products/essentials.html>
<http://store.powerbook1.com/marsporivipc.html>
<http://www.otherworldcomputing.com/>
<http://www.eunitek.com/apple/store/ipod.cfm?CFID=18999&CFTOKEN=7916245>


**Most Brilliantly Sneaky Hack** - Jim Rea of ProVUE was
  demonstrating the Panorama iPod Organizer, which lets you use your
  iPod as a sort of lightweight read-only PDA. It exports a Panorama
  database as MP3 files. These contain no music; what's important is
  their names and ID3 tag information. The result is that after you
  sync your iPod, your database entries show up organized
  hierarchically within the Artists folder (e.g. Artists ->
  Family -> Sister, and within that are the actual music files
  whose names are my sister's phone number and address). For $20,
  it's a cheap way to look cool and reduce the number of digital
  devices you carry. [MAN]

<http://www.provue.com/ipodorganizer.html>


**Before You Ask...** Working a booth at Macworld Expo is a
  grueling haul, and is made worse when you're one of those folks
  who is asked the same question constantly. Joe Kissell of
  Kensington added some levity to his booth shift by taping a piece
  of paper to his back which read, "YES! We are working on Keystroke
  Emulation for Mac OS X." Below that, in smaller letters, read,
  "YES! I know I have a sign taped to my back," and at the bottom,
  "(Yes, I know it looks silly.)" [JLC]

<http://www.kensington.com/>


**Best Toy** - Remember how the old SuperPaint let you paint with
  really weird brushes, such as bubbles? The $40 GroBoto, from Braid
  Media Arts, propels that idea into the third dimension. As you
  move the mouse, elaborate abstract 3D drawings spring up like
  tentacles and fill the screen. Unlike traditional 3D programs,
  GroBoto is neither difficult nor slow; you make freeform 3D
  drawings instantly. That's because GroBoto's objects are made of
  pre-rendered elements, so the computer's chief worry is merely
  what's in front of what. At a higher level, you can assemble
  variations of a number of built-in 3D objects, animate them, and
  even construct little games and simulations using a Logo-like
  programming language. Enchanting, intriguing, and educational for
  kids of all ages - you simply must give the demo a try. [MAN]

<http://www.groboto.com/>


Peering Into 2002's Tea Leaves
------------------------------
  by Adam C. Engst <ace@tidbits.com>

  This time of year it's traditional either to look back at the
  events of the past year or to offer predictions for the upcoming
  one. 2001 was a bit grim in many ways, so let's instead look
  forward to a few of the top stories for 2002, remembering at all
  times the lessons we learned in the past.


**Battle Over Digital Content** -- As Dan Kohn's essays in TidBITS
  over the last few months have shown, we're at a point in history
  where views surrounding traditional concepts of intellectual
  property are changing. Millions of people share music in MP3
  format every day, and video is becoming increasingly common on the
  peer-to-peer file sharing services that have grown in popularity
  after the recording industry managed to hamstring Napster. This
  genie will never be stuffed back into the bottle, despite
  consumer-angering moves like copy-protected CDs that can't be
  played back in computer CD drives.

<http://db.tidbits.com/getbits.acgi?tbser=1209>
<http://db.tidbits.com/getbits.acgi?tlkthrd=1551>

  I don't give the music downloading services started by the record
  labels - PressPlay and MusicNet - much of a chance. Few people
  know or care which labels (and thus which of the services)
  distribute their favorite artists, the usage limitations are
  significant, and did I mention that neither one works on the
  Macintosh or Unix?

  Movies and books will increasingly start to pop up on the file
  sharing services in 2002. Neither is likely to be as significant a
  concern as music, since movies and books are produced and consumed
  differently than music. I haven't worked out of all of the
  variables, but consider the fact that you can listen to a song
  hundreds of times in a year, but few people over the age of 10
  would watch the same movie more than a few times in a year. And
  how many adults re-read books? In addition, movies can require a
  vast number of people and cost hundreds of millions of dollars to
  make, whereas a single author can produce a camera-ready book in
  only a few months.

  I don't have any answers here, but if you're either a creator or
  consumer of digital content, pay close attention in 2002, because
  things will be changing and it's better to change with the times
  than stick your head in the sand.


**Go Fast, Go Wireless** -- It's ironic that the most prominent
  magazine of geek chic - Wired - is in danger of having its name
  end up sounding outdated. Wires aren't going away, but it's clear
  that 2002 will be another step on the ascendence of 802.11
  wireless networking.

<http://db.tidbits.com/getbits.acgi?tbser=1210>

  More people will be jumping on the wireless home networking
  bandwagon in 2002 as they replace older Macs with current ones
  that can accept Apple's AirPort cards. PC laptops are finally
  starting to include antennas so they can compete with Macs in
  range and elegance. Apple's recent addition of support for sharing
  an AOL Internet connection via the AirPort Base Station will also
  help, given the many millions of AOL users.

  Most people believe that 802.11b wireless networks are limited to
  a 50 meter range, but in fact that limit is related only to
  antenna size and power. Thanks to this flexibility, long-range
  wireless networking will become much more common in 2002. Free
  metropolitan area wireless networks are leading the charge in
  numerous communities around the world. Also coming soon will be
  EarthLink founder Sky Dayton's new service, Boingo, which will
  provide wireless Internet access in over 750 locations in the U.S.
  by overlaying existing local wireless networks with a single
  access and billing system. And if you want to wing it on your own,
  check out WiFinder.com for a map of wireless access points around
  the United States.

<http://www.personaltelco.net/index.cgi/WirelessCommunities>
<http://www.boingo.com/>
<http://www.wifinder.com/>

  Also look for penetration of faster variants on the 802.11
  standard, including 802.11a and the recently approved 802.11g.
  802.11a promises data rates up to 54 Mbps, but uses radio
  frequencies between 5 GHz and 6 GHz, so it's not compatible with
  current 802.11b hardware. 802.11g also promises data rates up to
  54 Mbps over relatively short distances but stays in the 2.4 GHz
  frequency band for compatibility.

  Wireless network security is likely to remain an issue, given that
  several high-profile cracks last year made it clear that
  intercepting wireless traffic wasn't difficult. Much work is being
  done to secure wireless networks - I expect to see solutions start
  appearing in 2002, although older hardware may not be able to take
  advantage of these advances, leaving some networks open to
  eavesdropping.

  TidBITS will cover the highlights of the wireless networking
  space, but if you're really interested in the topic, be sure to
  check out our friend Glenn Fleishman's 802.11b Networking News
  site.

<http://80211b.weblogger.com/>


**Fall and Rise of Broadband** -- Some of the biggest stories of
  2001 were the troubles of major broadband ISPs, first the large
  DSL providers and then one of the most prominent cable providers,
  Excite@Home. Also caught in the net was Metricom's wireless
  Ricochet service, along with numerous other ISPs that suffered
  when a larger upstream ISP went under.

  And yet, it's clear from the angst that fills the email of those
  affected that the loss of broadband Internet access is felt
  deeply. Once you've experienced having the Internet available
  instantly without dialing and at generally good data rates, it's
  hard to go back to modem access. It's difficult to say if
  broadband will recover fully in 2002, but if the companies still
  providing it can't figure out a way to make it profitable given
  the significant interest shown by customers, there's something
  wrong, especially given the amount of infrastructure already in
  place.

  Perhaps broadband companies could succeed in 2002 by implementing
  more sensible pricing and eliminating unnecessary restrictions on
  the number of machines and use of servers. The first restriction
  is so easily circumvented with a gateway it isn't funny, and the
  second shows a lack of understanding of the Internet. ISPs sell
  bandwidth, nothing more, and it makes more sense to charge for
  bandwidth used than to make arbitrary distinctions about the
  number of machines or the type of programs running. Neither
  approach is likely to be as popular as flat-rate pricing, but
  that's proven problematic, and I'll bet those missing high-speed
  connections would be happy to get them back under terms that are
  clear about the costs of the system.


**PDAs Stay Put** -- I really wanted to say that we'll see
  something stunning from the PDA world in 2002, but frankly, I just
  can't see much of interest happening, which is news in itself.
  Some new handhelds like the Handspring Treo will ship, and they'll
  be smaller, cheaper, and include a few more functions. But the PDA
  industry has a number of problems that add up to 2002 being a year
  of recovery and stabilization.

<http://www.handspring.com/products/communicators/>

  I'm not sure people want much more from a PDA than they can get
  now. That was one main reason Palm succeeded where Apple's Newton
  and others failed previously - the original PalmPilot didn't
  attempt to do everything. The various PocketPC devices offer more
  functionality, but from what I've seen, it's primarily for
  demonstration purposes ("Look, you can even watch videos!")

  Form factor also limits where PDAs can go. There's not much room
  to change the PDA form factor while maintaining screen size and
  still fitting it in a pocket. Plus, the traditional large-screen
  form factor makes for an uncomfortable match when mimicking
  devices with different form factors, such as thin cell phones or
  diminutive RAM-based MP3 players. Innovative engineering, such as
  that which produced the folding PDA keyboard, could overcome some
  of these problems, but great industrial design doesn't happen
  every day.

  Finally, the major PDA hardware players - Palm, Handspring, Sony,
  Compaq, HP - fall into two categories: relatively small and
  unprofitable companies without strong capitalization, or large
  companies that focus primarily on other products. Designing and
  manufacturing new hardware is risky for Palm and Handspring, given
  the costs of ramping up production lines and holding inventory,
  and although the larger companies have less exposure to financial
  problems, PDAs simply aren't a significant part of their product
  mix. Add it all up, and you get more of the same PDAs to which
  we've become accustomed.


**Jokers Wild** -- I'm sure I've failed to anticipate some of the
  major stories that will be coming up in 2002, and I hope that
  Apple will be a major force in surprising me. Not all of Apple's
  attempts to change the face of computing succeed - as we've seen
  most recently with the Cube - but no other company tries as hard
  to push the envelope of what's technically possible with products
  that elegantly meld technology into our lives.



$$

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